Understanding User Decision Making and the Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts Lessons from a Case Study

FEBRUARY 2004 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | S cientific research on atmospheric processes and weather forecasting frequently leads to improvements in weather forecasts [such as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)], as measured by scientific criteria. Furthermore, effective use of such improvements has the potential for avoiding injury and death, averting property and environmental damage, and other societal benefits. Although the potential societal value of improved weather forecasts is substantial, the realization of that potential is not automatic (Pielke and Carbone 2002). The scientific community has a responsibility to work toward that realization. The success of that work depends on a number of factors. Obtaining the actual (not just the potential or theoretical) value of improved forecast technology requires (a) a forecasting process that translates improved science and technology into improved forecast products that are targeted to user needs, (b) effective communication of forecast information to users in a timely fashion and in a form useful for making weather-information-sensitive decisions, and (c) users who incorporate the forecast product into their decisions in order to make better choices (on the processes of forecasts, communication, and use, see Glantz and Tarleton 1991; Piekle and Carbone 2002; Sarewitz et al. 2002). Meeting these requirements begins with the detailed understanding of user needs and decision processes that is the outcome of systematic study. Such study also provides a foundation for studies of the value of current forecasts and forecast improvement. There is a large literature on forecast value (see, e.g., UNDERSTANDING USER DECISION MAKING AND THE VALUE OF IMPROVED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY